When Trump says the USA lost India and Russia to China, the world pays attention. At the SCO Summit Tianjin 2025, the former U.S. President posted on Truth Social:
“Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China.”
For many, this was just another blunt Trump remark. For others, it was a clear sign of Washington’s growing unease about a multipolar world order.
As someone who studies defence and geopolitics closely, I see this statement as more than a one-liner. It reflects America’s struggle to retain influence, India’s rise as a global energy and security player, and the irony of an interconnected economy where allies and adversaries sometimes buy and sell to each other.
Trump says the USA lost India and Russia: Trump’s Statement
The SCO Summit 2025 in Tianjin showcased a rare moment of unity among Asian powers. Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared together on stage, signalling that Eurasia is building its own path.
Trump seized on this moment. By declaring that the USA has lost India and Russia to China, he positioned himself as the only American leader openly admitting what many in Washington fear: that America’s traditional partners are drifting towards Beijing’s orbit.
His phrasing was emotional, but the timing was deliberate. It turned a photo-op into a geopolitical warning on China.
India–Russia–China: Symbolism vs Strategy
SCO Outcomes
The summit focused on energy cooperation, digital finance, and military exercises. For outside observers, it looked like the formation of an India, Russia, and China alliance.
India’s Balancing Act
In reality, India is not “lost.” It is a founding member of the Quad with the U.S., Japan, and Australia, while also playing an active role in the SCO and BRICS. This dual presence explains why outsiders say Trump claims India and Russia are leaning towards China.
But India’s policy is rooted in strategic autonomy. It seeks partnerships without surrendering sovereignty.
Russia’s Dependency on China
Unlike India, Russia has little room to manoeuvre. Sanctions following the Ukraine war have forced Moscow to depend on Beijing for trade, energy markets, and diplomatic support. Here, Trump is correct: Russia is effectively “lost” to China.
China’s Advantage
For China, hosting both Modi and Putin was a propaganda victory. Trump’s words only amplified Beijing’s claim that the global power realignment of 2025 is tilting in its favour.
From Nobel Peace Prize to Tariff Friction
Trump’s sensitivity towards India is not new. On 10 May 2025, he claimed he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize if he could settle the India–Pakistan conflict through a ceasefire.
On 10 May 2025, Trump claimed he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering an India–Pakistan ceasefire. In reality, the ceasefire was arranged directly between the two DGMOs after India struck Pakistani airbases and nuclear assets in the Kirana Hills. Prime Minister Narendra Modi dismissed Trump’s self-declared role, insisting Kashmir remains a strictly bilateral issue, a rejection that bruised Trump’s ego.
The Fallout
- Within weeks, his administration imposed tariffs on Indian exports.
- His tone shifted from admiration to resentment.
- By September, his remarks about the USA “losing India” were read as both geopolitical analysis and personal frustration.
For me, this shows that Trump’s foreign policy statement 2025 carries the burden of bruised pride as much as global calculation.
USA Foreign Policy: Trump vs Biden
Comparing Trump and Biden highlights the contrast.
- Biden pursued quiet diplomacy, strengthening defence ties and technology sharing with India.
- Trump thrives on bold statements and confrontations.
This fuels the debate: Is Trump exaggerating, or is the USA truly losing India and Russia to China?
The Economic Dimension: BRICS, Oil, and De-Dollarisation
BRICS Expansion and Trade Shifts
The BRICS bloc, with its new members, now represents nearly half the world’s population. Energy deals in yuan and discussions on de-dollarisation threaten the dominance of the U.S. financial system.
The Oil Paradox: India’s Refining Power
One of the most striking contradictions lies in oil. Trump has often demanded that India stop buying Russian oil, arguing it helps fund Moscow’s war. India’s response has been firm: it will buy oil “from anywhere to serve national interest.”
The results are dramatic:
- 40% of India’s crude imports now come from Russia.
- India refines this oil and exports it worldwide.
- Europe and the USA buy refined products, even while banning Russian crude.
- China now imports Indian-refined fuels.
- Most striking, India supplied about 16% of Ukraine’s diesel imports in August 2025, making it Kyiv’s top supplier.
This paradox shocks analysts. Ukraine, while fighting Russia, is indirectly burning Russian-origin oil refined in India. In effect, Ukraine is partially funding its own conflict.
For the U.S., this undermines its sanctions narrative. For India, it is proof of how national interest can turn global pressure into opportunity.
Infographic Box: India’s Oil Power Play (August 2025)
- 40% of India’s crude imports came from Russia
- India’s exports to China recorded a 5.6% surge in August 2025.
- India supplies 16% of Ukraine’s diesel imports
- India is among the top diesel exporters to Europe and the USA
- Refined fuel exports to China are also increasing
Takeaway: India buys Russian crude, refines it, and resells it globally, even to countries sanctioning Moscow.
Security and Military Implications
Energy is only one part of the puzzle. The Indo-Pacific balance is also at stake.
- If India were to tilt towards China, USA deterrence in Asia would weaken.
- SCO military drills, covering cyber warfare and joint air patrols, are emerging as alternatives to NATO formats.
- Russia and China use SCO to signal a new Eurasian security bloc.
India joins these drills cautiously, but the optics fuel Trump’s claim of an India, Russia, and China alliance in 2025.
Global Reactions
Chinese Media
Beijing’s media outlets framed Trump’s post as an admission of the USA’s decline, declaring “America admits defeat.”
Indian Analysts
Experts in New Delhi highlighted strategic autonomy, stressing that India is not “lost” but carefully balancing Quad and SCO.
Western Think Tanks
In Washington and Europe, Trump’s remarks were seen as a wake-up call. Analysts warned the USA to adapt to a multipolar world order rather than expect loyalty.
Future Implications
Trump’s Geopolitical Warning on China
His words may be exaggerated, but they reflect the truth that China’s pull is stronger than ever.
Will India Tilt Towards China?
Unlikely. Border clashes, technology rivalry, and security distrust prevent a full tilt. India will continue balancing between the Quad and the SCO.
Quad vs SCO Balance
- Quad strengthens USA-India-Japan-Australia cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
- SCO promotes Eurasian integration under Chinese influence.
- India’s presence in both makes it a swing power in global geopolitics.
My Perspective: Ego Meets Multipolarity
When I look at Trump’s reaction to India, Russia, and China, I see both strategy and ego. His Nobel Peace Prize claim in May 2025 backfired, tariffs soured ties, and his latest statement reflects lingering resentment.
But India is not lost. It is showing the world that it can buy oil from Russia, sell fuel to Ukraine, deepen defence with the USA, and still maintain independence.
This is what unsettles Washington. Not that India leans towards China, but that it refuses to be controlled.
Key Takeaways
- Trump says the USA lost India and Russia to China: A bold claim after the SCO Summit 2025.
- India’s position: Balancing Quad and SCO under strategic autonomy.
- Russia’s reality: Dependent on China due to sanctions.
- Nobel Peace Prize episode: Modi’s rejection bruised Trump’s ego.
- Tariffs: USA.-India trade tensions escalated.
- Oil paradox: India refines Russian crude and sells globally, even to Ukraine.
- U.S. losing allies to China?: Russia, yes; India, no: India is asserting autonomy.
- Global power realignment 2025: The world is multipolar, not USA-centric.
Final Word
Trump’s outburst is part exaggeration, part truth. Russia is indeed “lost” to China. But India is not lost. It is playing the game of great powers on its own terms, balancing between the Quad and SCO, as well as between Moscow and Washington.
As a defence and geopolitics observer, I believe this episode proves one lesson: power in 2025 belongs not to those who demand loyalty, but to those who turn contradictions into leverage. India is proving it can.